Mastering Wealth Strategies for a Global Economy

Residential or commercial property rates have actually come under pressure after a duration of strong growth, with current data from the Dubai Land Department revealing a drop in mortgage deals and money sales. We believe the risk of a long lasting migrant outflow and a severe decline in the genuine estate sector is low.

As an enduring US-Iran offer takes shape, the fallout from the conflict has actually tightened up regional financial conditions, exposing vulnerabilities through capital outflows, larger bond spreads, and weaker investor belief. Most GCC sovereigns bring relatively little debt and financing risks are therefore restricted in the UAE, the central bank's liquidity management has minimized instant issues.

That stated, Bahrain has had the ability to count on assistance from neighbours, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it successfully raised $1bn from an oversubscribed sovereign bond sale this month, marking the first offering from the area given that the war started. High-frequency financial data highlight the pressure on local public finances from the dispute.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

2026 Business Landscape in the GCC

In Saudi Arabia, the spending plan deficit more than doubled to SAR125.7 bn, or about 9% of GDP in Q1, driven by a decrease in oil income and a rise in spending, especially on aids, reflecting contingency expenses tied to the regional environment and an acceleration of Vision 2030 costs. In Qatar, the crisis brought oil and gas revenue to a stop, swelling the spending plan deficit to the largest considering that 2017.

GCC inflation characteristics remain uneven, with food prices the primary source of upward pressure and inflation in this category fortifying in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. By contrast, food inflation remains fairly subdued in Saudi Arabia, likely reflecting the mitigating effect of its bigger domestic food production base and greater supply-chain resilience.

We continue to see cost pressures as largely transitory rather than indicative of a sustained inflationary cycle. Appropriately, we anticipate typical inflation to relieve to 2.1% y/y in 2027 as short-term supply-side pressures dissipate. With near-term inflation elevated and transit through the Strait likely set to resume gradually, we anticipate the US Federal Reserve to keep rates of interest on hold up until December, and regional rate policies to do the same.

We expect Iran's GDP to diminish by 10.8% this year (we forecast a 9.4% contraction three months ago). Oil production and exports, which supply vital profits and FX inflows, have actually been cut by the US naval blockade, while non-oil activity has actually been significantly hit. In Iraq, oil exports have collapsed to a trickle and we're forecasting GDP to contract by around 22% this year, with a sharp 33% rebound in 2027 as oil exports normalise.

By contrast, Syria continues to reintegrate into the international economy after more than a years of civil war. We expect GDP growth to typical 9.6% over 2026-2027, supported by restored financial investment, particularly in banking and energy, financial reforms, and the progressive reopening of regional trade links.

Evaluating Regional Investment Resilience in 2026

The World Bank has slashed its 2026 development projection for Middle East economies, saying overall GDP growth in the region is expected to slow from an estimated 3.6% in January to 1.8% for 2026. The closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and damage of energy and public facilities, had actually interrupted markets, increased monetary volatility, and weakened the 2026 development outlook, the World Bank Group said in its Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The April 2026 World Bank's Macro Hardship Outlook forecasts that the region's aggregate (excluding the Iran) GDP development will slow down to 1.8 percent in 2026, down from 4.0 percent approximated for 2025. The 2026 projection has actually been devalued by 2.4 percentage points given that the January forecasts, reflecting the adverse impacts of the ongoing dispute.

Saudi Arabia: Forecast was downgraded by 1.2 portion points given that January. Development is now expected to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, keeping in mind that Saudi Arabia's outlook remains the strongest among Gulf economies. United Arab Emirates: Growth forecast for the UAE has actually fallen by 2.7 portion points considering that January.

Qatar: Especially, development projection for the Qatari economy has seen a sharp decrease of 11.0 portion points given that January. The economy is now expected to record a contraction of 5.7%, down from an approximated growth of 5.3%, due to serious blockage to melted gas materials. Qatar is an essential gamer in the worldwide energy market, with a global market share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) products varying between 20% and 21%.

Kuwait relies entirely (100%) on the Strait of Hormuz to export its unrefined oil and derivatives. As a result, closing the strait would suggest a total shutdown of the country's financial lifeline, right away stopping revenue inflows to the state budget plan. Bahrain: Development forecast for Bahrain's economy has actually decreased by 1.8 percentage points because January.